Overview

For this assignment, you will solve problem $10\mathrm{.}24($page $436$ of the etext$)$ of Introduction to Management Science: A Modeling and Case Studies Approach with Spreadsheets $($shown below$).$ Use the Assignment $6-3$ Student Template document, which contains three tabs with table and charts already constructed for you. This assignment will give you practice with forecasting, which will be part of your Final Project.

Prompt

$10\mathrm{.}24$

The choice of the smoothing constants, $\backslash$alpha and $\backslash$beta $,$ has a considerable effect on the accuracy of the forecasts obtained by using exponential smoothing with trend. For each of the following time series, set $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$ and then compare MAD obtained with $\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}1,0\mathrm{.}2,0\mathrm{.}3,0\mathrm{.}4,$ and $0\mathrm{.}5.$ Begin with initial estimates of $50$ for the average value and $2$ for the trend.

$52,55,55,58,59,63,64,66,67,72,73,74$

$52,55,59,61,66,69,71,72,73,74,73,74$

$52,53,51,50,48,47,49,52,57,62,69,74$

Step $1)$ Change the Beta Value and create a graph for each of the $5$ given Beta values in each of the $3$ databases. You could also create one graph per tab with $5$ separate lines. The graphs is already part of the spreadsheet, you need to create the lines for the Beta values. There is no need to create additional tabs in the spreadsheet.

Step $2)$ Briefly describe the impact of the Beta value on the $3$ databases. You should submit a written paragraph with explanation either in a separate Tab in the Excel Template for a separate word document. No references needed.