Paccolin is a start-up company with a cost of equity capital of 10% per annum. It is
Question:
Paccolin is a start-up company with a cost of equity capital of 10% per annum. It is 100% equity financed. Assume for simplicity that it pays no taxes. It is now the end of 2021. It is predicted that Paccolin’s sales revenue will be GBP (£) 400,000 in the year 2022 and that sales growth rates from 2023 to 2027 will be as follows:
Year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
Sales growth (%) | 50% | 40% | 25% | 10% | 4% |
Assume that operating expenses always equal 50% of sales; and that, starting at £80,000 in the year 2021, net operating working capital always equals 20% of the following year’s sales.
The carrying amount of net non-current operating assets (in £ ‘000) will be as follows:
End of year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
Net non-current operating assets | 2,000 | 2,100 | 2,200 | 2,300 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
a) Calculate Paccolin’s expected free cash flow to equity (FCFE) from 2022 to 2026.
b) Assuming that Paccolin’s free cash flow to equity grows at 4.85% in 2027 and then at 4% in the post-horizon period from 2028 onwards, and given that there are 1 million shares outstanding, calculate the intrinsic value of a share in Paccolin at the end of 2021.
c) Explain under what assumptions one might arrive at a prediction of a long-term FCFE growth rate of 4% for the post-horizon period.
d) What proportion of the value of equity you calculated in part (b) is due to FCFE expected in the post-horizon period? Comment on this. To what extent would this be different if you had used a different valuation method?
e) By how much would the share price you calculated in part (b) change if the assumed post-horizon growth rate (i) increased, or (ii) decreased by 1%? Explain briefly what additional considerations or methods would help you to arrive at a more precise estimate of the value of Paccolin’s equity.
f) Explain the drawbacks of using the dividend discount model or free cash flow-based models when valuing a young company with positive expected net present value (NPV) investment opportunities and heavy investment in operating assets.
Financial reporting, financial statement analysis and valuation a strategic perspective
ISBN: 978-0324789416
7th Edition
Authors: James M Wahlen, Stephen P Baginskl, Mark T Bradshaw