PAD 4841/5896 Intelligence Analysis Bayesian Thinking Project from Lahneman and Arcos (2014) First Information Drop (internal) You get word from a scientific advisor with the UN informs you that you should be focusing on buildings, probably new buildings, with air conditioning, air filtration. Windows are unlikely to open. There will almost certainly be physical security in the form of fences, closed-circuit TV, and armed patrols. Wastewater will need filtration, and there may be special arrangements for taking away trash in sealed bags. A compound for the scientists working there is likely, including VIP housing. Some military or paramilitary guarding is certain, so there will be troop accommodations and transport garaging, probably at company strength. Second Information Drop (internal) Advice from past UN inspection teams is that they did a thorough job and it is highly unlikely that SS would take the risk of trying to reuse any of their declared sites. They also judge it is unlikely that the facility will be in a major population center, where it would be harder to keep secret the fact that scientists are working on a covert program. Third Information Drop (internal) You examine the data collated by the UN team that oversaw the dismantling of the previous program. You note that they had logged 50 sites as being definitely or very probably associated with prohibited programs (which the UN termed "suspect sites," marked S) out of the total 750 sites. You further note that 40 of these sites have the characteristics that responsibility for their security was in the hands of the elite PG, whereas only 10 were guarded by regular army units. Similarly, let PG be the proposition that a site is guarded by the PG and P(PG) be the probability that the proposition is true, that is, the site is guarded by the PG. You learn that 240 of the total sites are guarded by the PG. With Presidential Guard Normal Army Total Suspect Sites Nonsuspect Sites Total Sites 1) Recreate the table above with completed information on your sheet to turn in. Then, write the probability model that expresses the chance of picking a site at random from the 750, and finding that it is one of the suspect sites. (Hint: P(S) = number of suspect sites/total number of sites; this should give you a fraction or percentage). 2) Write the probability model that expresses the chance of picking a site at random from the 750, and finding that it is guarded by the PG