PART 1.DECISION MAKING. (15 Marks)

Direction: Read, Analyze and calculate what are required.

Mary is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open a small shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 0.2 for a good market, 0.3 for an average market, and 0.5 for a bad market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized and small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain.

Alternative	Good Market	Average Market	Bad Market
Small shop	45,000	70,000	-35,000
Medium Sized shop	40,000	55,000	-12,000
No shop	0	0	0

a. Calculate the EMV criterion (4Marks)

b. Prepare the EVPI. (4 Marks)

c. Develop the opportunity loss table for this situation. What decisions would be made using the minimum EOL criterion? (7 Marks)