Part 3: Creating a Forecast in Orange

Develop an appropriate forecast using the ARIMA model in Orange. Accept the defaults for the ARIMA model and ensure that the number of forecast periods is set to 1.

1. Set the default settings for the ARIMA model to the following - p: auto-regression order=0, q: differencing degree=0, d: moving average order=0; forecast steps ahead=1, confidence intervals=95

2. Evaluate the ARIMA model with 20 folds and 1 forecast step

a. What are the ARIMA(0,0,1) RMSE and forecast values?

b. What are the ARIMA(0,1,1) RMSE and forecast values?

c. What are the ARIMA(0,1,2) RMSE and forecast values?

d. What are the ARIMA(0,2,2) RMSE and forecast values?

i. What is the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval?

ii. What is the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval?

iii. What are the forecast values for January 2022 and February 2021 (2 forecast steps)?

Complete and submit your answers for the second section of questions in the Data - Forecasting Assignment Questions activity on Moodle.

Forecasting Assignment

Part 4: Choosing the Best Model

Which model, of all the forecast models created in this assignment, is the best? Cite one factor that led you to believe the best model is more appropriate than the other ones. Suggest two improvements that could be made to make the forecast even better (i.e. think in terms of the data available, not simply stating changes that could be made to alpha values)?

Record your answers in the final section of the Data - Forecasting Assignment Questions.

Date	Edmonton Regular Gas Price (cents)
4/1/2020	62.4
5/1/2020	83.3
6/1/2020	92
7/1/2020	95
8/1/2020	92.2
9/1/2020	98.8
10/1/2020	92
11/1/2020	90.2
12/1/2020	94.7
1/1/2021	100.9
2/1/2021	109
3/1/2021	114.5
4/1/2021	119.9
5/1/2021	123.4
6/1/2021	125.6
7/1/2021	133
8/1/2021	132.3
9/1/2021	129.5
10/1/2021	138.3
11/1/2021	136
12/1/2021	130.6
1/1/2022	133.7
2/1/2022	142.2
3/1/2022	161.7
Date	Edmonton Regular Gas Price (cents)
4/1/2020	62.4
5/1/2020	83.3
6/1/2020	92
7/1/2020	95
8/1/2020	92.2
9/1/2020	98.8
10/1/2020	92
11/1/2020	90.2
12/1/2020	94.7
1/1/2021	100.9
2/1/2021	109
3/1/2021	114.5
4/1/2021	119.9
5/1/2021	123.4
6/1/2021	125.6
7/1/2021	133
8/1/2021	132.3
9/1/2021	129.5
10/1/2021	138.3
11/1/2021	136
12/1/2021	130.6
1/1/2022	133.7
2/1/2022	142.2
3/1/2022	161.7
4/1/2020	62.4
5/1/2020	83.3
6/1/2020	92
7/1/2020	95
8/1/2020	92.2
9/1/2020	98.8
10/1/2020	92
11/1/2020	90.2
12/1/2020	94.7
1/1/2021	100.9
2/1/2021	109
3/1/2021	114.5
4/1/2021	119.9
5/1/2021	123.4
6/1/2021	125.6
7/1/2021	133
8/1/2021	132.3
9/1/2021	129.5
10/1/2021	138.3
11/1/2021	136
12/1/2021	130.6
1/1/2022	133.7
2/1/2022	142.2
3/1/2022	161.7
4/1/2020	62.4
5/1/2020	83.3
6/1/2020	92
7/1/2020	95
8/1/2020	92.2
9/1/2020	98.8
10/1/2020	92
11/1/2020	90.2
12/1/2020	94.7
1/1/2021	100.9
2/1/2021	109
3/1/2021	114.5
4/1/2021	119.9
5/1/2021	123.4
6/1/2021	125.6
7/1/2021	133
8/1/2021	132.3
9/1/2021	129.5
10/1/2021	138.3
11/1/2021	136
12/1/2021	130.6
1/1/2022	133.7
2/1/2022	142.2
3/1/2022	161.7

Forecasting. Data.1213