Part (a) Use the 4-period moving average method to forecast for these data and for the first 4 weeks after week 16. Compute MSD/E, MAD, MAPE, and Bias. Plot the forecasting errors e(t) in Excel to see any patterns in the errors. (3 pts) Part (b) Use the first-order exponential smoothing model with = 0.3 to forecast for these data and for the first 4 weeks after week 16. Compute MSD/E, MAD, MAPE, and Bias. Plot the forecasting errors e(t) in Excel to see any patterns in the errors. (Assume F(0) = A(1)) (3 pts) Part (c) Use the second-order exponential smoothing model with = = 0.3 to forecast for these data and for the first 4 weeks after week 16. Compute MSD/E, MAD, MAPE, and Bias. Plot the forecasting errors e(t) in Excel to see any patterns in the errors. (Assume F(0) = A(1), T(0) = 0.0)) (3 pts) Part (d) Use Winters's multiplicative exponential smoothing model with = = = 0.3 and N=4 to forecast for these data and for the first 4 weeks after week 16. Compute MSD/E, MAD, MAPE, and Bias. Plot the forecasting errors e(t) in Excel to see any patterns in the errors. (Assume F(N) = Average of the first N A(i) values, T(N) = 0.0)) (3 pts) Part (e) Same as Part (d) except = 0.7, = = 0.1 and N = 4. Which technique is best and why? Suggest modification(s) to the above models that may make more sense for this situation. (Late homework is accepted for a maximum of 2 days after its duedate with a penalty of 10%. No homework is accepted if it is delayed more than 2 days.)

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