Part C - Question 1 21 1. Observing the historical demand of product x shown in the table below, you noticed that 2015 demand was unusually high, and you knew the reason behind the rise of demand in that year, which will not probably occur again. Assume that your manager, who has been recently appointed, asked you to forecast the demand for 2019 using the simple moving average technique. Do you think simple moving average is the best method to be used? If no, would you suggest a better forecasting method to your manager even though it will be harder for you to use? (1 pt.) Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Demand 110 110 500 115 110 105 2. Assume that you are the leading a company that is planning to produce one of three types of chemical products (A, B & C) that they are testing. The environmental engineer at your company has just found that product C can cause serious harm to the environment and the users. Assume that the expected success level of sales of the products, with the corresponding probabilities are as follows: (big success, with probability pl-0.25); (moderate success, with probability p2=0.45); and (loss, with probability p3=0.30). Outcomes of the states of nature of products A, B & C are expected to be ($1100, $700,- $600), ($300, $150,-300), and ($1400, $1000, -50), respectively. Based on this information, provide a response to the following deliverable: a. Following your ethical values, and using the expected value method, which product will you launch to the market? (I pt.)