partial credit, Problem 4.11

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Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:

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Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Registrations (000)	4.004.00	7.007.00	5.005.00	6.006.00	11.0011.00	9.009.00	8.008.00	10.0010.00	12.0012.00	12.0012.00	12.0012.00

a) Calculate the forecasted registrations for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing, with a smoothing constant

(alpha)

of

0.350.35

and a starting forecast of

4.004.00

for year 1 (round your responses to one decimal

place):

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Forecast (000)	4.004.00	4.0 4.0	5.1 5.1	5.1 5.1	5.4 5.4	7.4 7.4	8.0 8.0	8.0 8.0	8.7 8.7	9.9 9.9	10.6 10.6	11.1 11.1

b) Mean absolute deviation based on the forecast developed using the exponential smoothing method (with a smoothing constant

(alpha)

=

0.350.35

and a starting forecast of

Upper F 1F1

=

4.004.00)

is

6.8 6.8

registrations (round your response to one decimal place).

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