Payoff table, Decision Tree (manually), and decision/recommendation

Example 4 (Stevenson, 2018) The director of social services of a county has learned that the state has mandated additional infor- mation requirements. This will place an additional burden on the agency. The director has identified three acceptable alternatives to handle the increased workload. One alternative is to reassign present staff members, the second is to hire and train two new workers, and the third is to redesign current practice so that workers can readily collect the information with little additional effort. An unknown factor is the caseload for the coming year when the new data will be collected on a trial basis. The estimated costs for various options and caseloads are shown in the following table. CASELOAD Which alternative would be the best for the director to choose, given the Moderate High Very High reasonable caseload probabilities are Reassign staff $50* 60 85 0.10 for moderate, 0.30 for high, and New staff 60 60 60 0.60 for very high. Construct a decision Redesign collection tree for this problem and indicated the 40 50 90 expected value for the three decision *Cost in $ thousands alternatives