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NOTE: THE TWO DIGITS ARE: (79)

Q1) A specialized electronic store sells products ranging from laptops to digital cameras. One of their high selling products is 22mm lens for digital cameras. Demand for 22 mm lens in the last 8 years are as follows: Demand Year 2017 380+10*last two digits of your student number 2018 420+10*last two digits of your student number 2019 440+10*last two digits of your student number 2020 420+10*last two digits of your student number The supply chain manager thinks that demand is stable over the years and is considering two methods to forecast the demand for 2021, i.e., (i) 2 years moving average (ii) 2 years weighted moving average with weights (0.8,0.2) and (ii) exponential smoothing with smoothing constant a=0.6 to forecast the demand. For exponential smoothing methods, he would start this method with forecast for year 2017 F2017=380+10*last two digits of your student number for 2017. a) Fill the demand table using the last two digits of your student number. For example, if your student number is BBA190012, last two digit is 12 and the demand for 2017 is D2017=380+10*12=500. b) What are the forecasts for 2019, 2020 and 2021 according to 2 years moving average? c) What are the forecasts for 2019, 2020 and 2021 according to 2 years weighted moving average? d) What are the forecasts for 2019, 2020 and 2021 according to exponential smoothing? e) Compare the forecasts in (b), (c) and (d) using MAD and indicate which forecasting method is the most accurate