please answer, this is urgent. Numbers one and two are already completed. We just need 3,4,5

Part Group Project

Scenario:

Kiana has gatheredmonthly data for 2016- 2018.

She will use this data to create a forecast for 2019.Based off of these forecasts and her financial data, she will estimate herpayoffs.

She is consideringtwoDecisionAlternatives:

1.Continue running the shop as she has planned

2. Buying into a franchise

The franchise will cost her $5500per month.They have also said that she can expect her demand to increase by 21% each month over her projections.

She is consideringthreeStates ofNature:

Based on the economic forecast shehas received,theprobabilitiesshe associates with thethree states of natureare:

Based on the above informationthe question you are to answer iswhichDecision Alternativeshould Kiana pick and why?

Steps:

Take data, create forecast based on the classical decom example, except monthly data instead of quarterly.

For help reviewChapter5 partC.This calculation islikethe monthly part of exercise6.

This profit calculation is reviewed in Chapter 3.For help with this step refer tothe Challenge part of the in-class exercise 3 forChapter 3.

Create profit model usingDemand from Step1. This model will be very similar to the model for thechallenge exercise from Exercise 3.

This is very similarto in-class exercise 7 (Chapter 6 part 1).