Question: Please decide which would be the best 2022 forecast method by using the following two calculation models: Moving Average (4 years) and Weighted Moving Average

Please decide which would be the best 2022 forecast method by using the following two calculation models:

Moving Average (4 years) and Weighted Moving Average (2 years, 0.25 year 1 and 0.75 year 2).

For both cases, please disregard 2020 sales due to COVID reasons. Please use the Absolute Error and mean Absolute Error percentages to support your answer don't just use the simple forms of the forecasting methods. You can use Excel.

Historical sales are as follows.

Year Sales (units)

2010 1532698

2011. 1663441

2012. 1844600

2013. 1993206

2014. 2013568

2015. 1893120

2016. 2006540

2017. 2200365

2018 2259630

2019. 2549486

2020. 2018753

2021 2496332

2022 (FORECAST)

(I have already forecasted simple moving average, which is 2376453.25 and Weighted Moving Average which is, 2509620.5. Though am having doubts about whether my values for absolute error and mean average percentage error are correct.)

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