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For Exercise 3, submit both 1 & 2 listed below as ONE document.

1. Chapter 5 in your book gives an example of an IS project. This project has seven activities. Examine the table below:

Activity	Preceding Activities	Optimistic (o)	Most Likely (m)	Pessimistic (p)
A	-	6	7	8
B	-	6	9	14
C	A	7	9	11
D	A	5	10	12
E	C, B	7	10	12
F	D	8	8	11
G	E, F	5	8	10

A. Use the variance given and compute the number of days that gives the project manager a 95% chance of completing the entire project. Show your work.

B. What will happen if activity F took one day longer than it is estimated to complete?

2. It is often suggested that project managers obtain three time estimates for work units that have significant uncertainty associated with their time estimates. Assume you have collected three time estimates for each activity for a performance monitoring system at an international airport baggage handling system. Your cost estimate worksheet suggests the following:

Project estimate: 50 hours

Project standard deviation: 18 hours

Based on this information and assuming 3 standard deviations from the mean to include approximately 99.75% of the area under the normal distribution curve, calculate:

A. project highest credible hours

B. project lowest credible hours upper confidence limit

C. project lowest credible hours lower confidence limit

D. Explain to the airport executives, your primary sponsors, what these numbers mean.