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A B D E F G H K L M 0 Q R S T U N Intercept = 2012 Seasonalized Forecast = Slope = MAD = 1 2 SmMAD = Deseasonalize d Demand (MMFD) Seasonalized Unseasonalized Forecast 3 Month MMED SF Average SF Forecast ABS Error SmMAD Jan-10 Feb-10 | SMMAD="D, - F +(1-SMMAD, 4 Seasonal Factor Formulas: 5 -calculate SF per month (based on average yearly demand) 6 - calculate Average SF per month (Jan-Dec will be the same value for each year) 7 -calculate the Deseasonalized Demand MMFD - 8 - calculate Slope and Intercept for linear regression method using Deseasonalized Demand as "Known Y's" 9 - calculate unseasonalized forecast for Jan'10-Dec'12 (using linear regression formula y=mx+b) 10 - calculate seasonalized forecast for Jan'10 - Dec'12 11 - calculate total annual forecast for 2012 12 - calculate MAD 13 - calculate Sm MAD assume 1st period SmMAD = (phi*ABS Error) 14 - fill out table except areas that are blacked out 15 - show your work 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 15,925 13,532 14,648 15,697 16,653 15,411 13,534 12,454 16,300 23,378 16,975 15,135 19,430 17,534 17,822 17,740 17,952 21,552 15,699 15,059 23,508 30,519 16,175 15,315 17,950 13,534 15,054 1 37 38 39 40 41 Nov-12 Dec-12