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3. An organization is using the exponential smoothening method for preparing short-term forecasts for its product with an alpha value (or Smoothing constant) of 0.20. However, it is not clear if the forecasts obtained from the system are reliable enough. It is also not clear what the most appropriate measure is for assessing the forecast accuracy. Perform the following exercises using Table given below and suggest a suitable course of action for the organization: Table: Demand Data Month Data January 65 February 80 March 90 April 100 May 110 June 80 July 75 August 55 September 50 October 60 November 50 December 45 (a) Test the proposed forecasting tool by considering MAD and MAPE from July to December with same parameter. (b) Suppose you decide to change the value of a to 0.50. How will this impact forecasting accuracy? (c) On the other hand, if you replace the exponential smoothening model with a 3-period moving average model, will the forecasting accuracy improve? [10 marks