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Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND

$156$

$258$

$360$

$465$

$574$

$676$

$777$

$881$

$981$

$1083$

$1185$

$1286$

d$.$ Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods $212$ using an initial trend forecast $($T$1)$ of $1\mathrm{.}50,$ an initial exponential smoothing forecast $($F$1)$ of $58,$ an "alpha" of $0\mathrm{.}10,$ and a "delta" of $0\mathrm{.}40.$

e$-1.$ Calculate the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ for the forecasts made by each technique in periods $412."$