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9. Decision tree with multiple decision points Aa Aa Purple Turtle Group is planning to add a new product line to make iPlanes. However, Purple Turtle Group is considering the possibility of abandoning the project if the demand for the new product is low In the following decision tree table, (1), (2) and (3) represent decision points, also known as decision nodes or stages. The dollar value to the right of each decision node represents the net cash flow at that point, and the cash flows shown under t 3, 4, and 5 represent the cash inflows if the project is pushed on to completion If Purple Turtle Group decides to launch the new line for iPlanes at Stage (1), then it will spend $80,000 on the marketing study. If the marketing study yields positive results, then the firm will spend $300,000 on the prototype. If the prototype works well, then the firm will spend several millions more at Stage (3) to build a production plant. Suppose that as an analyst at Purple Turtle Group you have to analyze sequential decisions. By studying the following decision tree, you learn which of the following? Check all that apply If the project is canceled after Stage (1), the cost to Purple Turtle Group will be the $80,000 [ ] There is a 30% probability that investment in a production plant will yield bad results. If the project is canceled after Stage (1), Purple Turtle Group's costs will be $260,000 If the project is canceled after Stage (1), Purple Turtle Group's costs will be $10,269,000 Complete the decision tree table by calculating the net present values (NPVs) and joint probabilities, as well as products of joint probabilities and NPVs for each decision branch. Assume that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 896 for all decision branches. Hint: Use either a spreadsheet program's functions or a financial calculator for this task. Round the NPVs to the nearest dollar and remember to enter the minus sign if a value is negative. Note: All cash amounts in the following table are in thousands of dollars. Step 0 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 1st Invest Prob 2nd Invest Prob 3rd Invest Inflow Inflow Inflow NPV ($) JointNPV x Joint Prob (%) Prob ($) (2) 50% (2)20% (2) 30% -$10,269 -$10,000 Stop 50 (3)$4,761 (3)$1,900 $8,237 $20,065 $2,345 $7,800 $0 $0 75% -$300 (1) -s80 $0 25% Stop $0 $0 Expected NPV- Based on your calculations, in case Purple Turtle Group abandons the new project right after the marketing study, the loss is $391,000 $300,000 $80,000 $81,000 9. Decision tree with multiple decision points Aa Aa Purple Turtle Group is planning to add a new product line to make iPlanes. However, Purple Turtle Group is considering the possibility of abandoning the project if the demand for the new product is low In the following decision tree table, (1), (2) and (3) represent decision points, also known as decision nodes or stages. The dollar value to the right of each decision node represents the net cash flow at that point, and the cash flows shown under t 3, 4, and 5 represent the cash inflows if the project is pushed on to completion If Purple Turtle Group decides to launch the new line for iPlanes at Stage (1), then it will spend $80,000 on the marketing study. If the marketing study yields positive results, then the firm will spend $300,000 on the prototype. If the prototype works well, then the firm will spend several millions more at Stage (3) to build a production plant. Suppose that as an analyst at Purple Turtle Group you have to analyze sequential decisions. By studying the following decision tree, you learn which of the following? Check all that apply If the project is canceled after Stage (1), the cost to Purple Turtle Group will be the $80,000 [ ] There is a 30% probability that investment in a production plant will yield bad results. If the project is canceled after Stage (1), Purple Turtle Group's costs will be $260,000 If the project is canceled after Stage (1), Purple Turtle Group's costs will be $10,269,000 Complete the decision tree table by calculating the net present values (NPVs) and joint probabilities, as well as products of joint probabilities and NPVs for each decision branch. Assume that the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 896 for all decision branches. Hint: Use either a spreadsheet program's functions or a financial calculator for this task. Round the NPVs to the nearest dollar and remember to enter the minus sign if a value is negative. Note: All cash amounts in the following table are in thousands of dollars. Step 0 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 1st Invest Prob 2nd Invest Prob 3rd Invest Inflow Inflow Inflow NPV ($) JointNPV x Joint Prob (%) Prob ($) (2) 50% (2)20% (2) 30% -$10,269 -$10,000 Stop 50 (3)$4,761 (3)$1,900 $8,237 $20,065 $2,345 $7,800 $0 $0 75% -$300 (1) -s80 $0 25% Stop $0 $0 Expected NPV- Based on your calculations, in case Purple Turtle Group abandons the new project right after the marketing study, the loss is $391,000 $300,000 $80,000 $81,000