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Problem 2.4 (Forecasting with Seasonality) A hardware store sells potting soil, the demand for which is highly seasonal and has also exhibited a slight upward trend. The number of bags of soil sold each month for the past 40 months is reported in the file potting-soil.xlsx. Using triple exponential smoothing with a = 0.2, B = 0.1, and y = 0.3, forecast the demand for May. Initialize your forecast by setting I =D S, = 1,-1,- 12D C = 2 D, for periods t = 1,...,12. (There are better ways to initialize this method, but this method is simpler.) S16 Jx A B D 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Name Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Demand 96 319 405 830 874 1719 2797 2235 1471 735 383 422 144 364 692 656 1223 2199 3530 2973 2099 1244 525 209 356 540 770 646 1355 2379 3946 3503 2723 1243 499 322 238 479 630 921 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41