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File Home Insert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Help Kofax PDF Cut Font Alignment Calibri 11 AA = == On a Wrap Text General Normal Bad Good Nel LG Copy Paste BIU - - - A - ES Merge & Center $ % 4 00 Conditional Format as Calculation Check Cell E xplanatory... Foll Format Painter Formatting Table Clipboard Number Styles R21 : x for 2 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Forecasting Exercise: Double Exponential Smoothing a. Given the following demand data and the parameters (highlighted), calculate FITt for periods 1 to 9 by using the double exponential smoothing method. b. Using your last At and Tt, forecast demand for periods 10, 15, and 20. C. Assess the accuracy of your forecasts using CFE, bias, MAD, and MAPE. Formulas: 1. FITt = At-1 + Tt-1 2. At = alpha x Dt +(1-alpha) x FITT 3. Tt = beta x (At - At-1) + (1-beta) x Tt-1 4. FITt+n = At-1 + (n+1) x Tt-1 (e.g. when t=9, n = 1, t+n = 10, FIT10 = A8+(1+1) x T8) Period Dt = Parameters: alpha = beta = 0.2 N 120 136 143 158 w AO = 120.00 131.80 142.41 154.38 164.47 174.14 184.69 194.19 TO = Error ABSEL % EL 0.00 0.00 0.00% 6.00 6.00 4.41% 0.84 0.84 0.59% 5.18 5.18 3.28% -2.10 2.10 1.29% -3.06 3.06 1.78% 0.44 0.44 0.24% -3.13 3.13 1.63% o FITT 10.00 120.00 10.36 130.00 10.41 142.16 10.72 152.82 10.60 165.10 10.41 175.06 10.44 184.56 10.25 195.13 204.44 214.69 265.94 317.20 172 185 4.18 192 Accuracy: CFE = Bias = MAD = MAPE= 0.52 To c 2.59 1.65%