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Good Morning Class!

In our discussion about human tendencies to assume events with low probability as impossible and events with high probability as certain, I thought of an example related to fishing, specifically around fishing competitions. Each year, Lake Champlain has a large international fishing tournament with thousands of anglers participating to catch fish, resulting in points towards prizes. These anglers aim to catch the biggest fish in each category. Many anglers enter such tournaments hoping to catch the largest fish despite the low probability of achieving this feat. In 20+ years, I've only placed in the top 10 maybe 4 times, with one-year sweeping multiple categories and winning "Lady of the Lake," which is incredibly hard to do, with a low probability. :) The excitement and anticipation of potentially winning the tournament drive all anglers to participate, even though the odds are not in their favor.

On the other hand, the participants often assume that they will catch at least some fish during the tournament weekend because the probability of catching a fish is relatively high. This assumption is based on their past experiences and the routine nature of fishing. However, the rare and dramatic event of catching the biggest fish can seem more probable and desirable, motivating anglers to compete. And, in my case, sleep on a 17-foot boat for the entire tournament duration (Saturday - Monday). Ha!

This example illustrates how the human tendency to assume events with a low probability as impossible and events with a high probability as certain can influence human behavior in competitive fishing. The dream of catching the biggest fish in any given category, despite the low odds, drives more participation. In contrast, the routine expectation of catching some fish provides a sense of certainty.

I've included a photo of my two Catfish that secured multiple awards a few years back, including 'Lady of the Lake', 4th place, 7th place, and 3rd place for teams. The probability of this happening again is very slim.