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Sales 1 I. Ahmad works as a marketing analyst in ABC Company. He is trying to understand the behavior of sales for the new ABC shampoo over time. A senior marketing analyst told Ahmad that he typically uses a Logistic Regression model to predict all Shampoo products. Ahmad did not listen and wanted to find out for him self. He collected sales data over the first 10 months and stopped, then collected data over the months 13 to 20. The data Ahmad collected are shown (Sales are in S000). Answer the following: Month Sales Month 13 44,8 2 45.1 13.2 16.0 45.7 45.7 21 24 19 46.7 30 47.0 35.3 8.4 10.2 45.6 14 15 16 17 18 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20.4 46.2 20 33.3 1- For the data in the first 10 months, use Microsoft Excel and regression analysis to predict the mathematical relationship between Time and Sales. Provide the graph and proper mathematical equation. Comment on the goodness of fit. 2. For the data in the second table, use Microsoft Excel and regression analysis to predict the mathematical relationship between Time and Sales. Provide the graph and comment on the goodness of fit. (Use same X-Y Scale in both graphs). 3. Combine the two tables, ignoring missing values, and use the following equation (for which the parameters were estimated by trial and error). y = -0.11x2 + 3.6x +5.0 Calculate the value and comment on the accuracy of this equation. 4- Use excel to create a trend line for the combined data. What is the equation of the trend line? Calculate R for this equation. What do you notice? What types of phenomena does this shampoo sales follow? (See Exhibit 2 in "Response Models' additional-reading file). 5. In your opinion, was the senior marketing analyst right or wrong? 6- Project sales using Egn. I to month 24 and notice when shampoo sales will start deteriorating below the level of $49,000, what do you think is the life cycle of this shampoo? In other words, how often should ABC Company come up with a new shampoo or modify the features of current one? II. A company called XYZ produces two products: Al and A2. the company conducted a survey of shoppers to understand customers' buying habits and determine the share of shoppers that a new product might attract. The customer rated four existing products and one proposed new product on a number of dimensions: 1) Quality, 2) Durability, 3) Value for the money, and 4) Ease of use. The results of this survey are shown in the following table: Product Quality Durability Value for the money Ease of use 0.15 0.85 0.55 0.35 0.25 0.75 B 0.95 0.9 0.8 D 0.85 0.9 0.45 0.4 0.95 3 E A2 (Proposed) Importance weight 0.95 0.65 0.5 0.45 0.7 0.9 2.5 0.95 0.85 0.1 1.2 0.1 2 ton 1- 2- 3- What is the expected market share for the new proposed product (product E)? What is the percentage of market share draw and Cannibalization from each product? What do you recommend regarding new product