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EXERCISES Remember when forecasting that one set of "right" answers does not exist. Rather, the question is whether the assumptions underlying the forecasts are sensible and have considered the appropriate information. For Domino's Pizza (DPZ), the following information on the past 5 years' revenues can be found E7.11 in the Form 10-K. Fiscal Year Ended December 21 December 30, December 31, 2018 2017 January 1, 2017 January 3, 2016 2014 (Dollars in Millions, Except per Share Data) Income statement data: U.S. company-owned stores. $ 3485 $ 514.8 391.5 358.5 $ 490.8 351.4 $ 439.0 312.3 $ 396.9 272.8 U.S. franchise royalties and fees U.S. franchise advertising.. 2302 U.S. stores 1,264.8 842.2 751.3 669.7 578.7 Supply chain. 1,943.3 1,739.0 1,544.3 1,383.2 1.262.5 International franchise royalties and fees 224.7 206.7 177.0 163.6 152.6 Total revenues.. $3,432.9 $2,788.0 $2.472.6 $2,216.5 $1,993.8 If this was the only information available, what forecasts of revenue growth in the foreseeable fut might be arrived at? What issues immediately arise that might require additional investigation E7.12 Below is information for Marriott (MAR) taken from the 2018 Form 10-K. Consider the impat of this disclosure on forecasts of revenues for the firm. Segment Revenues The following tables present our revenues disaggregated by major revenue stream as of year end 2018, year-end 2017, and year-end 2016: 2018 North American North American Full-Service Limited-Service Asia Pacific Other International Total $ 1,255 $ 903 $ 479 $ 518 $ 3,155 (58) (11) 3,097 ($ millions) Gross fee revenues... Contract investment amortization Net fee revenues Owned, leased, and other revenue Cost reimbursement revenue Total segment revenue. Unallocated corporate Total revenues. (33) 1,222 593 11,257 $13.072 (12) 891 128 2,198 $ 3,217 (2) 477 182 459 $ 1,118 507 668 1,091 $ 2,226 1,571 15,005 $19,673 1,085 $20,758 (5 millions) Gross fee revenues Contract investment amortization Net fee revenues Owned, leased, and other revenue Cost reimbursement revenue. Total segment revenue. Unallocated corporate Total revenues ($ millions) Gross fee revenues Contract investment amortization Net fee revenues Owned, leased, and other revenue Cost reimbursement revenue. Total segment revenue. Unallocated corporate Total revenues **** X *N 2017 North North American American Full-Service Limited-Service Asia Pacific $ 1,202 $ 842 $ 431 (25) (11) 1,177 831 132 697 11,035 2,256 $12,909 $ 3,219 North North American American Full-Service Limited-Service $ 856 746 (21) (9) (1) 737 430 191 433 $ 1,054 2016 Asia Pacific $ 231 (1) (9) 835 230 303 390 119 127 438 8.199 2.038 274 922 $ 9,424 $2,894 $631 $1,663 Revenues attributed to operations located outside the U.S. were $4,246 million in 2018, $3,830 million in 2017, and $3,187 million in 2016. Other International $ 476 (13) 463 685 1,140 $ 2,288 Other International $ 312 Total $ 2,951 2,901 1,705 14,864 $19,470 982 $20,452 (50) Total $ 2,145 (40) 2,105 1,074 11,433 $14,612 795 $15.407 EXERCISES Remember when forecasting that one set of "right" answers does not exist. Rather, the question is whether the assumptions underlying the forecasts are sensible and have considered the appropriate information. For Domino's Pizza (DPZ), the following information on the past 5 years' revenues can be found E7.11 in the Form 10-K. Fiscal Year Ended December 21 December 30, December 31, 2018 2017 January 1, 2017 January 3, 2016 2014 (Dollars in Millions, Except per Share Data) Income statement data: U.S. company-owned stores. $ 3485 $ 514.8 391.5 358.5 $ 490.8 351.4 $ 439.0 312.3 $ 396.9 272.8 U.S. franchise royalties and fees U.S. franchise advertising.. 2302 U.S. stores 1,264.8 842.2 751.3 669.7 578.7 Supply chain. 1,943.3 1,739.0 1,544.3 1,383.2 1.262.5 International franchise royalties and fees 224.7 206.7 177.0 163.6 152.6 Total revenues.. $3,432.9 $2,788.0 $2.472.6 $2,216.5 $1,993.8 If this was the only information available, what forecasts of revenue growth in the foreseeable fut might be arrived at? What issues immediately arise that might require additional investigation E7.12 Below is information for Marriott (MAR) taken from the 2018 Form 10-K. Consider the impat of this disclosure on forecasts of revenues for the firm. Segment Revenues The following tables present our revenues disaggregated by major revenue stream as of year end 2018, year-end 2017, and year-end 2016: 2018 North American North American Full-Service Limited-Service Asia Pacific Other International Total $ 1,255 $ 903 $ 479 $ 518 $ 3,155 (58) (11) 3,097 ($ millions) Gross fee revenues... Contract investment amortization Net fee revenues Owned, leased, and other revenue Cost reimbursement revenue Total segment revenue. Unallocated corporate Total revenues. (33) 1,222 593 11,257 $13.072 (12) 891 128 2,198 $ 3,217 (2) 477 182 459 $ 1,118 507 668 1,091 $ 2,226 1,571 15,005 $19,673 1,085 $20,758 (5 millions) Gross fee revenues Contract investment amortization Net fee revenues Owned, leased, and other revenue Cost reimbursement revenue. Total segment revenue. Unallocated corporate Total revenues ($ millions) Gross fee revenues Contract investment amortization Net fee revenues Owned, leased, and other revenue Cost reimbursement revenue. Total segment revenue. Unallocated corporate Total revenues **** X *N 2017 North North American American Full-Service Limited-Service Asia Pacific $ 1,202 $ 842 $ 431 (25) (11) 1,177 831 132 697 11,035 2,256 $12,909 $ 3,219 North North American American Full-Service Limited-Service $ 856 746 (21) (9) (1) 737 430 191 433 $ 1,054 2016 Asia Pacific $ 231 (1) (9) 835 230 303 390 119 127 438 8.199 2.038 274 922 $ 9,424 $2,894 $631 $1,663 Revenues attributed to operations located outside the U.S. were $4,246 million in 2018, $3,830 million in 2017, and $3,187 million in 2016. Other International $ 476 (13) 463 685 1,140 $ 2,288 Other International $ 312 Total $ 2,951 2,901 1,705 14,864 $19,470 982 $20,452 (50) Total $ 2,145 (40) 2,105 1,074 11,433 $14,612 795 $15.407