$*$Please show step by step in EXCEL$*$ Problem$-1(40$ pts$)$ The annual demand for lime bags at McCall$$s Garden Supply for the past $11$ months is provided in the tab McCalls Garden Supply. Use $2-$month, $3-$month, and $4-$month moving averages to forecast demand in month $12.(5$ pts$)$ Forecast demand with a $3-$month weighted moving average in which demand in the most recent month is given a weight of $3$ and demands in the other two months are each given a weight of $1.(5$ pts$)$ Forecast demand for month $12$ by using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}7.$ Assume that the forecast for month $1$ is $6,000$ bags to begin the procedure. $(10$ pts$)$ Which of the methods analyzed here would you use for month $12$ and beyond? Answer by making forecasts for months $5-11$ using each of the above methods and then calculating the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$).$ Month $|$ Bags

$(\text{'}000$s$)$

$1|8$

$2|12$

$3|10$

$4|7$

$5|7$

$6|8$

$7|11$

$8|8$

$9|13$

$10|7$

$11|9$

$12$