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Since the operations analyst comes across different types of problems, it is a good idea to classify them into some groups. This wil make it easier to select models and criteria to use in the analysis. There can be two ways of classifying problems: by the degree to which the outcome is uncertain, and by the dogree to which the decisicns are independent. UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOMES When we know for sure what the outcome of each decision will be, we are dealing with a problem under control of certainty. When a decision has more than one possible cutcome and we know the likelihood of each outcome, we are dealing with a problem under conditions of risk. Finaly, when a decision has more than one possible outcome and we do not know the likelihood of each outcome, we are dealing with a problem under conditions of uncertainty. Some examples may clarify these conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. 2.1 A chain of supermarkets is going to open a new store at one of four possible locations. Management wishes to select the locasion that will maximize profitability over the next ten years. An extensive analysis was performed 10 determine the costs, revenues, and profits for each aliernative. The results are shown below. Management has a high degree of confidence in these figures. The decision criterion (proft) has been explicilty identified and accurately calculated for each aliernative. Advise management on the optimal location to select to achieve the identified objective. 2.2 Further analysis of the supermarket chain's problem reveals that the profit associated with each location is not known for sure. Management is convinced that the ten-year profitability of each locason will depend upon regicnal population growth. Therefore, management cannot predict the cutcome with certainty. Three possible rates of populaton growth were idenofied: low, medim, and high. The profitability (\$ milions) associated with each location and each rate of population growth was calculated, as shown below. The figures at the bottom of the table gives the probablity (likelihood) of each rate of population growth. Decision strategy in this situation is more difficult than it is under conditions of cartainty. The choice is not so easy, It is not known which location will be best because the rate of future population growth is not known for certain. Prepare a brief report for managenent to determine which alternative is the best. 2.3 Even further analysis has cast doubt on the probabiity of the rates of populaton growth. New management doesn't know the probabilities of low, medium, or high growth, and is faced with a problem under conditions of uncertainty. Obviously, strategy is much harder to come by in this case. Discuss the approaches from a set of saveral options that analysts use in the situation of uncertainty. Since the operations analyst comes across different types of problems, it is a good idea to classify them into some groups. This wil make it easier to select models and criteria to use in the analysis. There can be two ways of classifying problems: by the degree to which the outcome is uncertain, and by the dogree to which the decisicns are independent. UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOMES When we know for sure what the outcome of each decision will be, we are dealing with a problem under control of certainty. When a decision has more than one possible cutcome and we know the likelihood of each outcome, we are dealing with a problem under conditions of risk. Finaly, when a decision has more than one possible outcome and we do not know the likelihood of each outcome, we are dealing with a problem under conditions of uncertainty. Some examples may clarify these conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. 2.1 A chain of supermarkets is going to open a new store at one of four possible locations. Management wishes to select the locasion that will maximize profitability over the next ten years. An extensive analysis was performed 10 determine the costs, revenues, and profits for each aliernative. The results are shown below. Management has a high degree of confidence in these figures. The decision criterion (proft) has been explicilty identified and accurately calculated for each aliernative. Advise management on the optimal location to select to achieve the identified objective. 2.2 Further analysis of the supermarket chain's problem reveals that the profit associated with each location is not known for sure. Management is convinced that the ten-year profitability of each locason will depend upon regicnal population growth. Therefore, management cannot predict the cutcome with certainty. Three possible rates of populaton growth were idenofied: low, medim, and high. The profitability (\$ milions) associated with each location and each rate of population growth was calculated, as shown below. The figures at the bottom of the table gives the probablity (likelihood) of each rate of population growth. Decision strategy in this situation is more difficult than it is under conditions of cartainty. The choice is not so easy, It is not known which location will be best because the rate of future population growth is not known for certain. Prepare a brief report for managenent to determine which alternative is the best. 2.3 Even further analysis has cast doubt on the probabiity of the rates of populaton growth. New management doesn't know the probabilities of low, medium, or high growth, and is faced with a problem under conditions of uncertainty. Obviously, strategy is much harder to come by in this case. Discuss the approaches from a set of saveral options that analysts use in the situation of uncertainty