Please submit MS Word and Excel files of your assignment. You should solve all the three questions in MS Excel and do analysis in MS Word file.

Data: For this assignment, you can download data of following variables from the respective sources:

1. Economic Variables (Such as GDP, GNP, Consumption, Government Expenditures, Imports, Exports, Foreign Direct Investment) from World Bank Data website
2. Stock Prices (Yahoo Finance or Pakistan Stock Exchange)
3. Exchange Rates (SBP Exchange Rate)

Each person must choose a different economic variable, stock index, stock, and exchange rate. The annual data should be for the period 1991 to 2020. The choice will be on a first-come, first-served basis. The choices are discussed below:

1. If you have selected Economic variables like GDP or GNP, please use BBQ Excel file and complete following table:

		Length of Recessions and Expansions
1991-2000			2001-2010				2011-2020
Year of Peak	Months to Trough	Months from Trough to Peak	Year of Peak	Months to Trough	Months from Trough to Peak	Year of Peak	Months to Trough	Months from Trough to Peak
Average

Note: You have to select any one country. For reference, please see Chapter 3, page # 39, and table 3.3

2. Stock prices - Forecast the price of a stock, or a stock index using Naiive approach. Compute and interpret the Error, Absolute Error, Squared Error, MAD, MSE, MPE and MAPE. Draw a line graph of the model actual, predicted and error values. The daily data should be for the period January 2015 to December 31, 2020.

3. Exchange rates - Forecast the exchange rate for any country. Forecast the exchange rate for any country. The daily data should be for the period January 2020 to February 28, 2021. Use your data and a spreadsheet program to forecast the value for your variable for March 2021. You should apply linear trend like OLS regression. Comment on the strength of the approach in terms of statistical measures such as the R², F-test, t-tests, p-value etc.

Please upload the soft copies of your analysis along with supporting spreadsheets (input and output files) Also, submit the hard copy of your assignment and keep all the data tables and result tables in Appendix.

Word Count: 750 1000 words