Question: Please use excel in solving show complete solution Case Problems in Decision Theory Using Excel 3) Robin Son is a product manager for Heart Chemical

Please use excel in solving show complete Please use excel in solving show complete solution

Case Problems in Decision Theory Using Excel 3) Robin Son is a product manager for Heart Chemical that is considering whether to launch a new product line that will require building a new facility. The technology required to produce the new product is yet untested. If Robin decides to build the new facility and the process is successful. Heart Chemical will realize a profit of PhP6,500,000. If the process does not succeed, the company will lose PhP8,000,000. Robin estimates that there is a 60% probability that the process will succeed. Robin can also decide to build a pilot plant for PhP500,000 to test the new process before deciding to build the full scale facility. If the pilot plant succeeds, Robin feels the chance that the full scale facility succeeding is 85%. If the pilot plant fails, Robin feels the chance that the full scale facility succeeding is only 20%. The probability that the pilot plant will succeed is estimated at 60%. a) Construct the decision tree for this problem. b) What should you advise Rob what to do. Robin Son has some revised information concerning the accuracy of the pilot plant probabilities. According to his new information, the probability that the pilot plant will be successful given that the full scale facility will work is 80%. The probability that the pilot plant will fail given that the full scale facility will fail is 85%. (Round off to 2 decimal points) c) Draw the new decision tree based on the new information. d) Does this new information affect Heart Chemical's original decision? Explain

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