Use GM file data that is listed below. GM data is a 5-year stock price and trade
Question:
Use GM file data that is listed below. GM data is a 5-year stock price and trade volume for General Motors Company (GM) from May 2016 through April 2021. This data includes average daily open, high, low, and close price of the month. “Adj close” column applies adjustments on close price due to splits and dividends. Volume represents the shares traded during the month.
a. Which one of the following forecasting methods works best for “High” price of the next month based on MAD criterion if you use the entire available data set? b. What is your next month forecast of GM “High” stock price using the best method you found in question 1?
c. What is your next month forecast for GM adjusted close stock price (Adj Close) using double exponential smoothing with the best smoothing constants. Check all combinations of smoothing factors alpha and beta for values between 0.1 and 1, incrementing 0.1 at a time to find the best value.
d. What is your next month forecast for GM adjusted close stock price (Adj Close) using additive seasonality without a trend? Check all combinations of smoothing factors alpha and gamma for values between 0.1 and 1, incrementing 0.1 at a time to find the best value.
e. What is your next month forecast for GM adjusted close stock price (Adj Close) using Multiplicative seasonality without a trend? Check all combinations of smoothing factors alpha and gamma for values between 0.1 and 1, incrementing 0.1 at a time to find the best value.
f. What is your next month forecast for GM adjusted close stock price (Adj Close) using Excel function FORECAST.ETS with seasonality?
g. What is your next month forecast for GM adjusted close stock price (Adj Close) using simple regression? use only partial data starting from March 2020 h. Based on the results from all forecasting methods you used for GM adjusted close stock price (Adj Close) data, which one is the best method based on the MAPE criterion?
Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Adj Close | Volume |
5/1/2016 | 32.05 | 32.12 | 30.17 | 31.28 | 26.41028 | 210049700 |
6/1/2016 | 31.15 | 31.15 | 27.34 | 28.3 | 23.89422 | 303560000 |
7/1/2016 | 28.69 | 32.87 | 27.52 | 31.54 | 26.96882 | 295969400 |
8/1/2016 | 31.54 | 32.09 | 29.82 | 31.92 | 27.29375 | 262310700 |
9/1/2016 | 31.86 | 32.55 | 30.13 | 31.77 | 27.16548 | 299362600 |
10/1/2016 | 31.64 | 33.08 | 30.88 | 31.6 | 27.34362 | 244472800 |
11/1/2016 | 31.7 | 34.98 | 30.21 | 34.53 | 29.87895 | 314369400 |
12/1/2016 | 34.81 | 37.74 | 34.67 | 34.84 | 30.1472 | 310509400 |
1/1/2017 | 34.98 | 38.38 | 34.84 | 36.61 | 32.02243 | 287500800 |
2/1/2017 | 36.68 | 38.1 | 34.72 | 36.84 | 32.22361 | 287888900 |
3/1/2017 | 37.2 | 38.55 | 33.79 | 35.36 | 30.92907 | 397935200 |
4/1/2017 | 35.36 | 35.4 | 33.37 | 34.64 | 30.6093 | 249493100 |
5/1/2017 | 34.63 | 34.65 | 31.92 | 33.93 | 29.98192 | 322113200 |
6/1/2017 | 34.06 | 35.05 | 33.05 | 34.93 | 30.86556 | 260038700 |
7/1/2017 | 34.52 | 36.63 | 34.45 | 35.98 | 32.1482 | 204852000 |
8/1/2017 | 35.81 | 36.74 | 34.59 | 36.54 | 32.64856 | 193493000 |
9/1/2017 | 36.73 | 40.69 | 36.62 | 40.38 | 36.0796 | 275318700 |
10/1/2017 | 41.01 | 46.76 | 40.8 | 42.98 | 38.79405 | 358941400 |
11/1/2017 | 42.72 | 45.35 | 41.35 | 43.09 | 38.89333 | 270788400 |
12/1/2017 | 43.19 | 43.42 | 40.7 | 40.99 | 36.99786 | 233305300 |
1/1/2018 | 41.24 | 45.52 | 41.15 | 42.41 | 38.62781 | 278088700 |
2/1/2018 | 42.12 | 43.56 | 39.32 | 39.35 | 35.8407 | 267909800 |
3/1/2018 | 39.59 | 39.59 | 34.5 | 36.34 | 33.09914 | 288911100 |
4/1/2018 | 36.1 | 39.67 | 35.23 | 36.74 | 33.80384 | 221705000 |
5/1/2018 | 36.76 | 42.77 | 35.28 | 42.7 | 39.28752 | 236116800 |
6/1/2018 | 42.98 | 45 | 39.37 | 39.4 | 36.25126 | 279572100 |
7/1/2018 | 39.08 | 40.5 | 36.26 | 37.91 | 35.18469 | 229946700 |
8/1/2018 | 37.89 | 38.32 | 35.21 | 36.05 | 33.45839 | 226191400 |
9/1/2018 | 36 | 36.49 | 33.28 | 33.67 | 31.24949 | 241380000 |
10/1/2018 | 34.3 | 37.05 | 30.56 | 36.59 | 34.32923 | 389476100 |
11/1/2018 | 36.24 | 38.75 | 33.85 | 37.95 | 35.6052 | 266802600 |
12/1/2018 | 39 | 39.61 | 31.46 | 33.45 | 31.38324 | 227541200 |
1/1/2019 | 32.85 | 39.14 | 32.2 | 39.02 | 36.99402 | 245901200 |
2/1/2019 | 38.91 | 40.74 | 38.01 | 39.48 | 37.43014 | 180097400 |
3/1/2019 | 39.85 | 41.5 | 36.26 | 37.1 | 35.17371 | 179459600 |
4/1/2019 | 37.4 | 40.45 | 37.33 | 38.95 | 37.29414 | 159149400 |
5/1/2019 | 39 | 39.2 | 33.15 | 33.34 | 31.92263 | 219724700 |
6/1/2019 | 33.35 | 38.99 | 33.08 | 38.53 | 36.89199 | 175430400 |
7/1/2019 | 38.93 | 41 | 37.58 | 40.34 | 39.03896 | 150765800 |
8/1/2019 | 41.26 | 41.9 | 35.58 | 37.09 | 35.89378 | 151235200 |
9/1/2019 | 36.89 | 39.78 | 36.44 | 37.48 | 36.2712 | 170562500 |
10/1/2019 | 37.47 | 38.7 | 33.71 | 37.16 | 36.32246 | 212810900 |
11/1/2019 | 37.21 | 38.96 | 34.59 | 36 | 35.18861 | 191233100 |
12/1/2019 | 36.01 | 37.62 | 34.96 | 36.6 | 35.77509 | 172043000 |
1/1/2020 | 37 | 37.38 | 32.97 | 33.39 | 32.98758 | 206959200 |
2/1/2020 | 33.56 | 35.79 | 29.33 | 30.5 | 30.13241 | 246636600 |
3/1/2020 | 30.52 | 32.3 | 14.33 | 20.78 | 20.52956 | 493637100 |
4/1/2020 | 19.5 | 24.99 | 17.79 | 22.29 | 22.29 | 359999200 |
5/1/2020 | 21.65 | 28.83 | 20.12 | 25.88 | 25.88 | 347689800 |
6/1/2020 | 25.99 | 31.66 | 24.25 | 25.3 | 25.3 | 350991100 |
7/1/2020 | 25.3 | 27.33 | 23.33 | 24.89 | 24.89 | 307217800 |
8/1/2020 | 25.06 | 31.12 | 24.82 | 29.63 | 29.63 | 273334700 |
9/1/2020 | 29.53 | 33.33 | 28.24 | 29.59 | 29.59 | 341929300 |
10/1/2020 | 29.52 | 38.03 | 29.15 | 34.53 | 34.53 | 309217200 |
11/1/2020 | 35.12 | 46.71 | 34.23 | 43.84 | 43.84 | 380303700 |
12/1/2020 | 44.78 | 45.45 | 40.06 | 41.64 | 41.64 | 274333300 |
1/1/2021 | 41.95 | 56.97 | 40.04 | 50.68 | 50.68 | 628903000 |
2/1/2021 | 51.46 | 57.05 | 49.35 | 51.33 | 51.33 | 418988300 |
3/1/2021 | 52.41 | 62.24 | 50.25 | 57.46 | 57.46 | 515673800 |
4/1/2021 | 57.92 | 63.44 | 57.04 | 60.16 | 60.16 | 130273100 |
Corporate Financial Accounting
ISBN: 9781337398169
15th Edition
Authors: Carl S. Warren, James M. Reeve, Jonathan Duchac