Please use the following data provided to answer questions please! Use excel and show step by step in order to understand material. Thank you so much $!!!$ I will give a great review! Thank you! b$.$ Use a naive model to generate monthly sales forecasts $($e$.$g$.,$ the February $2005$ forecast is

given by the January $2005$ value, and so forth$).$ Compute the MAPE.

c$.$ Use simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of $\mathrm{.}5$ and an initial smoothed

value of $430$ to generate sales forecasts for each month. Compute the MAPE.

d$.$ Do you think either of the models in parts $b$ and $c$ is likely to generate accurate forecasts for

future monthly sales? Explain.

e$.$ Use Minitab and Winters' multiplicative smoothing method with smoothing constants $==$

$=\mathrm{.}5$ to generate a forecast for January $2007.$ Save the residuals.

f$.$ Refer to part e$.$ Compare the MAPE for Winters' method from the computer printout with the

MAPEs in parts $b$ and $c.$ Which of the three forecasting procedures do you prefer?

g$.$ Refer to part e$.$ Compute the autocorrelations $($for six lags$)$ for the residuals from Winters'

multiplicative procedure. Do the residual autocorrelations suggest that Winters' procedure

works well for these data? Explain.