Plot the data and describe what you see. Superimpose the graphs by year.

b$.$ Simulate a forecast using the $4-$month moving average technique. What is the forecast for

January $2015?$

c$.$ Simulate a forecast using the exponential smoothing technique with $=0\mathrm{.}2.$ What is the

forecast for January $2015?$

d$.$ Which method is better, the moving average or exponential smoothing? Explain.

e$.$ Compute the tracking signal for both forecasting methods and comment on them.

f$.$ Suppose you create the following seasons: Season $1$: January; Season $2$: February and

March; Season $3$: April, May, June, and July; Season $4$: August and September; and Season $5$:

October, November, and December. Compute the seasonal indices.

g$.$ Suppose the forecast for $2015$ is $16,000$ in total. Using the seasonal indices from part $f,$

compute the forecast for each month of $2015.$