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The Hypothesis Process:

Description: You are presented a scenario and asked to conduct an analysis following the steps for hypothesis testing on page 302 of the Introduction text. You are given the results from a statistical analysis and asked to prepare a formal report of your findings for the CEO of a diabetes clinic. Finally, you must evaluate the consequences of your decision given the possibility that the conclusion you reached based on the results of the hypothesis test is wrong. This exercise is intended to help sensitize you to the reality that statistics are tools to aid in the decision making process and not a guarantee that your decisions are always going to be accurate.

Scenario: You are the director of a diabetes clinic that has recently completed a pilot for a new disease management program intended to reduce blood glucose levels in the participants. In developing the pilot study, you set out to demonstrate that the program will be effective in reducing average blood glucose levels for the programs participants. You hope to demonstrate the value of the program to your CEO by presenting to him the findings from a hypothesis test based on the results from the pilot study. After extensive preparation, including a comprehensive review of the literature and discussions with subject matter experts, the specifics of the disease management program were devised. The program consisted of individual counseling and education regarding lifestyle changes and healthy eating choices. The program recruited 50 patients who were seen twice a month, at which time they received individual counseling, along with having their blood sugars checked and tracked. The pilot lasted six months and required a fairly large resource commitment on the part of the clinic. Prior to beginning the program, participants had their blood glucose level drawn. The expectation was that the average blood glucose level of the group at the end of the pilot period would be lower than the average blood glucose level at the beginning of the pilot.

Over the course of the six-month pilot period, the program went well. The participants were engaged and seemed motivated with very few missed appointments and no dropouts along the way. While the program ran smoothly the cost of the program compared to its value would continue to be a factor in whether the program would be renewed. The Clinic has expressed its commitment to continue the program IF the program was found to be successful in reducing participants blood glucose levels. You are asked to prepare a report to the Clinics CEO detailing the value of the disease management intervention. In collecting your data you found that at the beginning of the pilot the groups average blood glucose level was 257.5 milligrams per deciliter. At the end of the pilot period the average blood glucose level for the group was 240 milligrams per deciliter. You have some knowledge of statistics and want to be pretty conservative in your analysis so you set your desired alpha level at 0.01. You asked a statistician friend to run the numbers and she reported back with the following statistics:

Critical value: 2.412 t-value: -3.68 p-value:

Prepare a brief report to Dr. Audrina Chase, CEO of The Diabetes Clinic detailing your findings and your recommendation regarding whether the disease management program should be continued. In other words, you are asked to answer the question: did the disease management program work? Your brief should, at a minimum, include the following details:

Present each step for hypothesis testing as described on page 302 of the Introduction text:

1. State the alternative hypothesis (Ha) and null hypothesis (Ho) for your analysis. You will need to construct these for your report based on the scenario description above.

2. Set the alpha level and explain its significance. 3. Interpret the probability of Ho being true using the statistical results above.

4. Explain whether the data supports accepting or rejecting the Ho.

A discussion of the potential sources of errors (Type I and Type II) possible in all hypothesis testing exercises and an explanation of the practical ramifications to your decision of making an error of each type.

Your recommendation about whether to continue the program and a justification for your decision based on the results provided.

Your memo should be no more than 500 words long and address each of the required items listed in the scenario. All sources, including course materials, must be cited in text in APA style. Remember that course materials need not be included in your references page, but all other references must be.