Pr1. Time Series.						Written 20%
						Test Grade
The data in the table below represent the annual revenues(in billion of dollars)
of McDonald's Corporation over the period from 1975 to 2012.
Year	Revenues
1975	1
1976	1.2
1977	1.4
1978	1.7
1979	1.9
1980	2.2
1981	2.5
1982	2.8
1983	3.1
1984	3.6
1985	3.8
1986	3.9
1987	4.9
1988	5.2
1989	5.9
1990	6.4
1991	6.7
1992	7
1993	7.4
1994	8.3
1995	9.8
1996	10.7
1997	11.4
1998	13.4
1999	14.5
2000	15.6
2001	14.9
2002	15.4
2003	17.1
2004	19
2005	20.5
2006	19.3
2007	22.4
2008	24.5
2009	23.6
2010	24.1
2011	29.5
2012	26.7
a) Calculate a five-year moving average to the data (add a column to the table)
b) Using a smoothing coefficient of W = 0.45, exponentially smooth the series
(add a column to the table, use data analysis to smooth)
c) Plot the results from a) and b) with the time series on a scatter plot.
d) Compute a quadratic trend forecasting equation and plot the predicted result with the data against the coded years.
e) Compute an exponential trend forcasting equation and plot the predicted results with the data against the coded years.
f) Compute a second -order autoregressive model, test for the significance of the second-order
autoregressive parameter, and plot the predicted results with the data against the coded years.
g) Ifnecessary, compute a first-order autoregressive model, test for the significance of the first-oder
autoregressive parameter, and plot the predicted results with the data against the coded years.
h) predict the values for years 2013 and 2014 using the best model out of d and e.
And the apropriate autoregressive model of f) or g).