PRACTICE:

Use the data from this problem to perform the following: $($similarly set up the problem as in class, your time periods will all be in one column, and your actual forecast all in one column, then first forecast column, then error column, etc.

Week Calls

$150$

$235$

$325$

$440$

$545$

$635$

$720$

$830$

$935$

$1020$

$1115$

$1240$

$1355$

$1435$

$1525$

$1655$

$1755$

$1840$

$1935$

$2060$

$2175$

$2250$

$2340$

$2465$

A$)$ Using a moving average of $6$ time periods, forecast the emergency calls for week $25.$

B$)$ Using a moving average of $9$ time periods, forecast the emergency calls for week $25.$

C$)$ Assuming an initial forecast of $50$ calls in week $1,$ use exponential smoothing to forecast calls for week $25.$ Use alpha $=\mathrm{.}4.$

D$)$ Calculate the MAD for each forecasting technique and determine which is the most accurate? Why?