Question: Predict the sales for September using a linear trend equation assuming that the sales from February through August were as follows: Month Sales February 19

  1. Predict the sales for September using a linear trend equation assuming that the sales from February through August were as follows:

Month Sales

February 19

March 18

April 15

May 20

June 18

July 22

August 20

2. The following are the sales and forecasts for 10 Months:

Month Sales Forecast

1 770 769

2 789 787

3 794 792

4 780 798

5 768 774

6 772 770

7 760 759

8 775 775

9 786 788

10 790 788

Required: For periods 1 to 10,

  1. Compute MFE
  2. Compute MAD
  3. Compute MSE
  4. Compute MAPE

3. A computer software firm has experienced the following demand for its Personal Finance" software package

Period Units

1 56

2 61

3 55

4 70

  1. Using 3 period moving average forecast to predict the demand of period 5
  2. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast for period 5 using both values of alpha 0.33 and 0.40. Determine which value of alpha you prefer using MAPE performance measure.

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