Probability 0.7 ($50,000,000 - $200,000 - $1,000,000) Not Awarded -$200.000 2) If Event A awarded and mediocre: $36,800,000 Success Bid ($38,000,000 - $200,000 - $1,000,000) Event A Probability 0.7 $48,800,000 3) If Event B awarded and successful: $3,680,000 Awarded ($3,750,000 - $10,000 - $60,000) Probability 0.3 $45,200,000 4) If Event B awarded and mediocre: $1,530,000 Probability 0.3 Mediocre ($1,600,000 - $10,000 - $60,000) $36,800,000 ecision Total EMV 1) EMV, If Event A awarded = $45,200,000 (48,800,000*0.7) + ($36,800,000*0.3) Success Probability 0.9 $3,680,000 2) EMV, If Event B awarded = $3,465,000 ($3,680,000*0.9) + ($1,530,000*0.1) Probability 0.9 Awarded $3,465,000 3) EMV of Event A = $13,420,000 ($45,200,000*0.3) + (-$200,000*0.7) Event B Probability 0.1 Mediocre Bid $1,530,000 4) EMV of Event B = $3,117,500 ($3.465.000*0.9) + (-$10.000*0.1)