Problem 1 20 points Eagle Stores is a retailer of office supplies. The monthly retail demand for a product is provided below from January 2015 to October 2016, DEMAND DATA Year 2015 2016 616 832 Month January February March April May 898 964 880 1016 912 758 974 940 1126 1032 June July August September October November December 828 894 850 1010 969 988 1004 870 1056 1020 a. Use the naive method to forecast the demand for November and December 2016. b. Use the moving average method with 4 periods to forecast the demand for November and December 2016 c. Use the exponential smoothing method with smoothing constant 0.7 to forecast the demand for November and December 2016. Initialize the forecasting method using the actual demand in January 2015 d. Fit a trend line to the demand data from January 2015 to December 2015. What is the trendline equation? e. What is the forecasted demand for November and December 2016 if you use this trend line equation? 1. How reliable is this forecast from a statistical perspective? # Compute the MAD of the trend line method used in part (d). Use the forecasts from January 2016 to October 2016 to compute the MAD of the method. What is the interpretation of MAD? Explain clearly why it is important to compute and track forecast accuracy