Problem $18-17($Algo$)$

Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine$-$month period $($January through September$).$ Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period.

MONTH ACTUAL

January $124$

February $131$

March $159$

April $172$

May $167$

June $173$

July $146$

August $132$

September $146$

a$.$ Forecast April through September using a three$-$month moving average.

Note: Round your answers to $2$ decimal places.

b$.$ Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}10$ to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April.

Note: Round your answers to $2$ decimal places.

c$-1.$ Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation for each method.

Note: Round your answers to $2$ decimal places.

c$-2.$ Use Mean Absolute Deviation to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six$-$month period.

multiple choice

Exponential smoothing

Three$-$month moving average