Problem $18-22($Algo$)$

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following

forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

a$.$ Calculate the simple three$-$month moving average forecast for periods $4-12.$

Note: Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

b$.$ Calculate the weighted three$-$month moving average for periods $4-12$ using weights of $0\mathrm{.}60($for the period $t-1),0\mathrm{.}30($for the period

$t-2),$ and $0\mathrm{.}10($for the period $t-3).$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $1$ decimal place.

c$.$ Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods $2-12$ using an initial forecast of $64$ and an $$ of $0\mathrm{.}40.$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

d$.$ Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods $2-12$ using an initial trend forecast $(T_1)$ of $1\mathrm{.}90,$ an

initial exponential smoothing forecast $(F_1)$ of $63,$ an $$ of $0\mathrm{.}40,$ and a $\frac{?}{\text{b}\text{a}\text{r}}()$ of $0\mathrm{.}40.$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.

e$-1.$ Calculate the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ for the forecasts made by each technique in periods $4-12.$

Note: Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.