Problem 1: Time Series Forecasting (25 pts). While you may use Excel to check your answers, you MUST show your complete work below for at least Years 3 and 4 for Simple and Adjusted ES, and also your Average Error calculations, to receive full credit. Else -5. Sam's Apple Farm is looking for forecasting help in trying to calculate the harvest. Here are the numbers from the last 6 harvests: (Year 1 is 2014, Year 2 is 2015...Year 6 is 2019). (Bushels are scaled from their true values to make calculation easier). Report your answers with two decimal places. Yr Bushels Simple ES Adjusted 3MA AE 3MA (SES) AE SES Trend ES AE AES 1 48 2 2 56 1 1 50 4 58 54.67 3.33 5 55 54.33 .67 6 65 59.33 5.67 AE = 3.22 a) Fill in the table above for Years 1-6. Use alpha = 2 for Simple Exponential Smoothing, alpha = 2 and beta = 4 for Adjusted Exponential Smoothing. Make sure to use my method (not the book's adjustment) to calculate Adjusted ES. Also calculate Average Errors (AE) for both Simple and Adjusted Exponential Smoothing to compare it with 3MA. Are the AE for either type of Exponential Smoothing lower than the AE of 3 22 for 3MA? (20 points) b) Suppose I told you that I wanted to use Linear Trend to forecast 2021 data. My formula is Bushels -- 48 +2*Year. What would the value be for 2021? (5 points) Problem 1: Time Series Forecasting (25 pts). While you may use Excel to check your answers, you MUST show your complete work below for at least Years 3 and 4 for Simple and Adjusted ES, and also your Average Error calculations, to receive full credit. Else -5. Sam's Apple Farm is looking for forecasting help in trying to calculate the harvest. Here are the numbers from the last 6 harvests: (Year 1 is 2014, Year 2 is 2015...Year 6 is 2019). (Bushels are scaled from their true values to make calculation easier). Report your answers with two decimal places. Yr Bushels Simple ES Adjusted 3MA AE 3MA (SES) AE SES Trend ES AE AES 1 48 2 2 56 1 1 50 4 58 54.67 3.33 5 55 54.33 .67 6 65 59.33 5.67 AE = 3.22 a) Fill in the table above for Years 1-6. Use alpha = 2 for Simple Exponential Smoothing, alpha = 2 and beta = 4 for Adjusted Exponential Smoothing. Make sure to use my method (not the book's adjustment) to calculate Adjusted ES. Also calculate Average Errors (AE) for both Simple and Adjusted Exponential Smoothing to compare it with 3MA. Are the AE for either type of Exponential Smoothing lower than the AE of 3 22 for 3MA? (20 points) b) Suppose I told you that I wanted to use Linear Trend to forecast 2021 data. My formula is Bushels -- 48 +2*Year. What would the value be for 2021? (5 points)