Problem 2 (20 points): Elderly population use a smart watch that detects a fall event and sends an emergency message to the police and the EMS. If a person falls the a fall is 0.95. The device does probability of the smart watch categorizing the event as generate false alarms. In last two years there were ve incidences where the police arrived on the scene and found out that it was a false event. Police records Show that the chances of an elderly person falling 011 any given day in the community is 2 in 10000. If a police receives an emergency message tomorrow, what is the probability that it is a true fall event