Problem 2. Forecasting Charitable Donations at the Union Mission Cash donations (in thousands of dollars) at the Union Mission for 2016-2018 were as shown below. Quarter Donations Quarter Donations Quarter Donations Q1 2016 243 Q1 2017 252 01 2018 271 Q2 2016 281 tho Q2 2017 291 Q2 2018 286 Q3 2016 254 Q3 2017 261 Q3 2018 270 Q4 2016 346 Q4 2017 353 Q4 2018 377 a. Ignoring seasonal effects, compare both the MAD and MSE values for the last value method, the averaging method, the moving average method (based on the most recent 4 quarters), the exponential smoothing method (with an initial estimate of 275 and a smoothing constant of a = 0.2), and the exponential smoothing method with trend (with initial estimates of 275 for the average value, 2 for the trend, along with smoothing constants of a = 0.2 and p = 0.2) when they are applied retrospectively to the years 2016-2018. b. Determine the seasonal factors for the four quarters. c. Repeat part a, but now considering the seasonal effects. d. Using the forecasting method from part a or c with the lowest MAD value, make long-range forecasts for charitable donations in each of the quarters of 2019