Problem 5) (20 points)

The demand for Krispee Crunchies, a favorite breakfast cereal of people born in the 1940s, is experiencing a decline. The company wants to monitor demand for this product closely as it nears the end of its life cycle. The trend-adjusted exponential smoothing method is used with =0.1 and =0.2 . Assume that the January estimate for the average number of cases sold per month, Fjan , was 900,000 and the trend, Tjan , was -50000 per month. The following table shows the actual sales history for Jan, Feb, and Mar.

Month	Dinners sold
January	890,000
February	800,000
March	825,000

Generate forecast (FIT) for February and March. (14 pts)

Calculate the mean absolute percent error with error measurement beginning in January and ending in March (All three months). (6 pts)