Problem 5 - Use the data below to calculate two Exponetial Smoothed Forecasts. The first forecast should use an alpha of .3 and the second should use an alpha of 7. For both forecasts round your forecasts to the nearest whole number. Based on the MAD what is the expected error for these two forecasting techniques? Based on your findings do you think the forecast technique should be more responsive or stable. Briefly, explain your choice. For both forecasts use January's actual demand as the forecast for the 1st period.

\begin{tabular}{cc} Actual \\ Month & Demand \\ \hline January & 1620 \\ February & 1500 \\ March & 1000 \\ April & 950 \\ May & 750 \\ June & 720 \\ July & 650 \\ August & 680 \\ September & 750 \\ October & 800 \\ November & 1150 \\ December & 1480 \\ January & 1750 \\ February & 1620 \\ March & 1200 \\ April & 900 \\ May & 820 \\ June & 750 \\ July & 630 \\ August & 700 \\ September & 770 \\ October & 850 \\ November & 1090 \\ December & 1400 \end{tabular}