Problem $5$

Using the forecasts determined from Problems $1$b$,2,3,$ and $4$

a$.$ For Year $2,$ graph the actual and forecasted values using the five techniques used in problems $1b,2,$

$3,$ and $4($na$$ve previous period, na$$ve previous year, moving average, weighted moving average,

and exponential smoothing$).$ Label all axes. You can draw this graph by hand or use Excel.

b$.$ Construct a table summarizing the actual $($A$),$ forecast $($F$),$ and error values $($E$)$ for Year $2$ using the

forecasted values from problems $1b,2,3,$ and $4$ of this assignment. You should have two sets of

forecasted values from problem $1$ b and one set of forecasted values from each of problem two,

three, and four. Clearly label the columns for your forecasted values. Here is an example of what the

first three rows in the table should look like $($make sure to do all $12$ months$)$:

c$.$ Determine MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each method. Here is an example of what the table could

look like:

d$.$ Using the forecast accuracy metrics, which single $($one$)$ forecasting method is best to use with the

Year $2$ data? Specifically, what technique would you use to forecast price. Justify your response.