Problem 6-05

Consider the following time series data.

1. Choose the correct time series plot.

(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)

1. What type of pattern exists in the data?
2. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week Time Series Value Forecast 118 213 316 411fill in the blank 3517fill in the blank 4614fill in the blank 5

1. MSE: fill in the blank 6 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7
2. Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week Time Series Value Forecast 118 213fill in the blank 8316fill in the blank 9411fill in the blank 10517fill in the blank 11614fill in the blank 12

1. MSE: fill in the blank 13 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14
2. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.
3. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for = 0.2.

Any alpha greater than .2 but less than .58 provides better results.Any alpha less than .2 provides better results.Any alpha greater than .58 provides better results.Any alpha less than .2 or greater than .58 provides better results.

Three-week moving averageExponential smoothing

Horizontal PatternTrend PatternTrend Pattern

Plot (i)Plot (ii)Plot (iii)Plot (iv)Plot (iii)