Question: Problem: A local deli has developed a new sandwich menu. The deli owner asked three Ph.D. students studying supply chain to forecast the demand over
Problem:
A local deli has developed a new sandwich menu. The deli owner asked three Ph.D. students studying supply chain to forecast the demand over next 20 weeks.
The table below records the demand of the new sandwich for the first 20 weeks, along with the three forecasts, Forecast 1, 2, and 3. Answer the following questions based on the table. A spreadsheet is separately available here: "Deli Demand"
| Week | Demand | Forecast 1 | Forecast 2 | Forecast 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 202 | 201 | 217 | 181 |
| 2 | 198 | 203 | 219 | 180 |
| 3 | 201 | 205 | 220 | 179 |
| 4 | 196 | 207 | 219 | 182 |
| 5 | 200 | 209 | 221 | 183 |
| 6 | 203 | 211 | 219 | 181 |
| 7 | 210 | 213 | 218 | 186 |
| 8 | 220 | 215 | 220 | 188 |
| 9 | 226 | 217 | 219 | 198 |
| 10 | 234 | 219 | 220 | 213 |
| 11 | 231 | 221 | 222 | 219 |
| 12 | 237 | 223 | 223 | 218 |
| 13 | 238 | 225 | 224 | 216 |
| 14 | 233 | 227 | 220 | 218 |
| 15 | 235 | 229 | 221 | 217 |
| 16 | 228 | 231 | 219 | 215 |
| 17 | 223 | 233 | 219 | 214 |
| 18 | 230 | 235 | 223 | 214 |
| 19 | 233 | 237 | 222 | 210 |
| 20 | 226 | 239 | 220 | 212 |
Q1.Measure the accuracy of each forecast using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) method.
1.Forcast 1?
2.Forcast 2 ?
3.Forcast 3?
Q2.Measure the accuracy of each forecast using Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE) method. Please round to two decimal places.
1.Forcast 1?
2.Forcast 2 ?
3.Forcast 3?
Q3.Round the mean forecast error to the nearest integer. Adjust the forecast bias of the most biased forecast by subtracting each observation with the rounded mean forecast error. Make sure all entries are integers.
Measure the accuracy of the adjusted forecast with MAD and RMSE methods. What is the newly unbiased forecast's MAD and RMSE values? Please round to two decimal places.
1.Adjusted Forecast MAD:?
2.Adjusted Forecast RMSE:?
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