Problem Number 3

Problem 3: [25 pts] After hearing all about Monte Carlo simulation from you, your friend Catie Glascott is asking for your help on an upcoming wedding. As a wedding planner, Catie needs to provide the caterer an estimate of how many people will attend the reception so that the appropriate amount of food is prepared for the buffet. The following table contains information of the number of RSVPs for the 145 invitations sent out for the wedding. IEE!_ No- Invitations Declined Invitation 50 Unfortunately, the number of guests who actually attend does not always correspond to the number of RSVPS. 9' Based on her experience, Catie knows that it is extremely rare for guests to attend a wedding if they affirmed that they will not be attending. Therefore, Catie will assume that no one from these 50 invitations will attend. For each of the 25 guests who RSVP'd that they will attend alone, Catie estimates that there is a 75% chance they will attend alone, a 20% chance they will not attend the wedding, and a 5% chance that the guest will bring a companion. For each of the 60 RSVPs who plan to bring a companion, there is a 90% chance that she or he will attend with a companion, a 5% chance of attending alone, and a 5% change of not attending at all. For the 10 people who have not responded, Catie assumes that there is an 80% chance that they will not attend, a 15% chance that they will be alone, and a 5% chance that they will attend with a companion. [15 pts] Create a simulation to aid Catie model how many guests will attend the wedding. [3 pts] Based on your model in part a, what is the expected number of guests for the wedding? Answer this using @Risk functions. [3 pts] Based on your model in part a, what is the minimum and maximum number of guests for the wedding? Answer this using @Risk functions. [3 pts] To be accommodating hosts, the couple has instructed Catie to use the simulation model to determine X, the minimum number of guests for which the caterer should prepare meals, so that there is at least a 90% chance that the actual attendance is less than or equal to X. What is the best estimate for the value of X? Answer this using @Risk functions