Problems $1$ through $6$ are based on the following data. Observations of the demand for a certain part stocked at a parts supply depot during the calendar year $2013$ were a$)$ Determine the one$-$step$-$ahead forecasts for the demand for January $2014$ using $3-,6-,$ and $12-$month moving averages. b$)$ Using a four$-$month moving average, determine the one$-$step$-$ahead forecasts for July through December $2013.$ c$)$ Using a four$-$month moving average, determine the two$-$step$-$ahead forecast for July through December $2013.($Hint: The two$-$step$-$ahead forecast for July is based on the observed demands in February through May.$)$ d$)$ Compute the MAD for the forecasts obtained in Problems $2$ and $3.$ Which method gave better results? Based on forecasting theory, which method should have given better results? e$)$ Compute the one$-$step$-$ahead three$-$month and six$-$month moving$-$average forecasts for July through December. What effect does increasing N from $3$ to $6$ have on the forecasts? f$)$ Use the arithmetic average of the first six months of data as a baseline to initialize the exponential smoothing. $$ Determine the one$-$step$-$ahead exponential smoothing forecasts for August through December, assuming $=0\mathrm{.}2.$ Compare the accuracy of the forecasts