Product Launch Decision Using Conditional Probability

Background: A company, Terre Haute TechTrend $($THTT$),$ is preparing to launch a new smartwatch that has innovative health monitoring features. Before moving forward with a full$-$scale launch, the company wants to assess the likelihood of the product's success in two major markets: the U$.$S$.$ and Europe. The company knows that success in these markets depends on two key factors:

The product's reception in initial customer trials.Competitors$$ actions $($whether they will launch similar products before THTT launch$).$

THTT$$s research team provides the following information based on customer trials and competitor analysis:

There$$s a $70\%$ chance that the smartwatch will receive positive feedback in customer trials.If the smartwatch receives positive feedback, there is an $80\%$ chance it will succeed in the U$.$S$.$ market and a $60\%$ chance it will succeed in Europe.If the smartwatch receives negative feedback, the chance of success drops to $30\%$ in the U$.$S$.$ and $20\%$ in Europe.There$$s a $40\%$ chance that competitors will launch similar products before THTT$.$ If competitors act first, the likelihood of success in either market drops by $20\%.$

The company$$s management is trying to decide whether to:

Move forward with a full$-$scale launch in both markets.Postpone the launch and gather more information about competitors$$ plans.Limit the launch to only one market $($U$.$S$.$ or Europe$).$

Questions

Based on the probabilities provided, what is the probability that the smartwatch will succeed in both the U$.$S$.$ and Europe if it receives positive feedback from customer trials?

How does the probability of success change if competitors launch similar products before THTT$?$

From a risk management perspective, how should THTT weigh the probability of competitors$$ actions when deciding on a launch strategy?

If you were part of THTT management team, which market $($U$.$S$.$ or Europe$)$ would you prioritize for the launch and why?