Professor Lennon from the University of New Mexico has been working on a new cholesterol medication that is being called TriglicoCleaner. The university is now conducting studies to determine if there is a possible side effect of upper respiratory infections.

Placebo (Population Rate)

To help determine the usual rate of upper respiratory infections, the research team gave a placebo (sugar pill) to 1539 subjects. Of those 1539 subjects, 2 of them developed upper respiratory infections.

TriglicoCleaner Trial

The TriglicoCleaner drug was given to 2462 subjects. Of those 2462 subjects, 13 of them developed upper respiratory infections.

Preliminary Math

If we consider the general population of people that don't use TriglicoCleaner, what is the probability that they will develop upper respiratory infections? (Enter your answer as a fraction.)

If you had a sample size of 2462 that did NOT use TriglicoCleaner, how many would expect to develop upper respiratory infections?

When 2462 subjects DID use the drug, there were 13 subjects that developed upper respiratory infections. Does it seem as though upper respiratory infections may be a side effect on first glance?

• Yes, the number of people effected seems significantly higher when they are using the drug.
• Yes, the number of people effected seems significantly smaller when they are using the drug.
• No, the number of people effect seems significantly higher when using the drug.
• No, the number of people effect seems significantly lower when using the drug.

Simulation

Since determining the probability of obtaining the trial results is beyond what we have learned so far, let's use a simulation to estimate the probability. The simulation will be under the assumption that someone is NOT using TriglicoCleaner. This way we can see if 13 is a reasonable number of people to develop upper respiratory infections or not.

In Google Sheets, complete the following:

1. Generate a random number between 1 and 1539 (use =RANDBETWEEN(1,1539)).
2. Drag the formula down till you have 2462 numbers. Each of these numbers will represent a person in a trial, where the numbers 1 - 2 represent people that developed upper respiratory infections.
3. With the first column highlighted, drag the formula to the right till you have 20 columns (T is the 20th letter). Each column represents its own trial. Your spreadsheet represents 20 separate trials.
4. Copy all of the generated numbers, and "Paste Values," so the numbers don't keep regenerating.
5. Under the A column (in a cell below your data) count how many people have developed upper respiratory infections by using the command =COUNTIF(A1:A2462,"<=2")
6. Highlight the cell with your COUNTIF statement and drag it over to the T column so that you can count the ailments in each trial.
7. Save the Google Sheets file as an .xlsx (File >> Download >> Microsoft Excel).

Attach the .xlsx file here:

Question 4 Part 4 of 8Choose FileNo file chosen

(Note -- If you do not attach a file, you will not get credit for this problem.)

What was the largest number of subjects with upper respiratory infections in a single trial (column) of your simulations?

How many of your trials had 13 or more subjects with upper respiratory infections?

Do you think it would be unusual to see 13 subjects develop upper respiratory infections out of 2462 total subjects? Explain.