Provide forecasts using only the following forecasting methods: a) a three-period moving average b) a three-period weighted moving average forecast with weights of 0.7, 0.2, and 0.1 c) an exponential smoothing forecast, using a starting forecast of 140 for week one and an =0.25 Answer only question v) for only the following three performance criterion: 1) MSE, 2) MAD, and 3) MAPE.

18. D Franklin Tooling, Inc., manufactures specialty tooling for firms in the paper-making industry. All of their products are engineer-to-order and so the company never knows exactly what components to purchase for a tool until a customer places an order. However, the company believes that weekly demand for a few components is fairly stable. Component 135.AG is one such item. The last 26 weeks of historical use of component 135.AG is as follows: Week Demand Week Demand 1 137 14 131 2 136 15 132 3 143 16 124 4 136 17 121 5 141 18 127 6 128 19 118 7 149 20 120 8 136 21 115 9 134 22 106 10 142 23 120 11 125 24 113 12 134 25 121 13 118 26 119 Use OM Explorer's Time Series Forecasting Solver to evaluate the following forecasting methods. Start error measurement in the fifth week, so all methods are evaluated over the same time interval. Use the default settings for initial forecasts. a. Nave (1-period moving average) b. Three-period moving average c. Exponential smoothing, with a = .28 d. Trend projection with regression e. Which forecasting method should management use, if the performance criterion it chooses is: CFE? MSE? MAD? MAPE